Every moderately serious bettor, one who understands betting as a form of investment and not as a game, will use their own strategies when betting. But what is a betting strategy? Why do we need them and what can we expect from them? On this website you will discover not only what betting strategies consist of, but you will also be able to discover a large number of proven strategies that are currently working successfully. Prepared?
Why do we need betting strategies?
All bettors have a common goal when we bet: we want to win with our bets. But like practically anything we set out to do in life, you need to visualize what your goal is in a more concrete way, and define and plan how you are going to achieve it. A plan is necessary, a method is necessary bingo4d login, it is necessary to draw a path to follow, and a series of rules that allow us to return to the path when we deviate of him.
This method will consist of a set of strategies, which in turn will be made up of a series of rules, thanks to which we will always know, at all times, how to act or what we should do, without room for doubt. . That is to say, there are many different betting houses, an infinite number of markets to bet on, practically infinite options, so a betting method will help us answer these questions:
How can we know what bet is best for us to make at a given moment, and that doing so is the right decision?
Why is it advisable to make that bet, and not just the opposite?
How do we know at what odds we might be interested in placing a bet or not?
How much money should I risk on a given bet?
How do I know if my method isn’t working or I’m just going through a rough patch and should persevere?
If my method doesn’t work, how can I know the reason, if it is due to poor pick selection, or if it is due to poor bank management, or for any other reason?
All these questions and many more are answered on this website in a way that is accessible to the entire public, so that everyone, whoever you are and wherever you come from, without needing advanced studies in mathematics or statistics, has the opportunity to savor the long-term success in the world of sports betting.
What is a sports betting strategy
A betting strategy is a set of rules established in a concise way, with the objective of turning the tables in the game, so that the house advantage of betting becomes an advantage for the bettor, and that he also knows at all times what he should do and how to act. A strategy will tell you through the application of rules one or more of these actions: what bet to enter, when, under what conditions, how much to bet, at what time and how to exit, etc.
It is important to make it clear in advance that it is only possible to win on bets when you are playing in non-exact markets, where there is a margin for uncertainty. In other words, no one will ever find a game system that allows you to win in the long term in pure probability games, with fixed probabilities. For example, there is no strategy that allows you to win in the long term at casino roulette, considering that its operation is statistically perfect. Some readers will remember the famous case of Los Pelayo. They took advantage of the physical deficiencies of the tables (some tilt, etc.), which caused the probabilities to not be statistically perfect. The casinos learned from it and took action, don’t think about trying.
However, it is possible to beat the bookmakers in games of non-pure probability, non-exact probabilities, where there is a margin of error. These games will normally be sports, although it is not the only case; There are very advanced models to calculate the probability of a sporting event, but none are accurate enough. If you have a system that allows you to be just one step ahead of the rest of the players, you will end up winning in the long run. A strategy will help you identify where these miscalculations typically occur and leverage them to your advantage. Keep reading and discover with us how to win by betting.
On this website you can learn everything and find all the resources and tools necessary to beat the betting houses in the long term, without cheating or cardboard, in a completely transparent way. Continue reading and you will see.
Types of strategies
There are many types of strategies, with different purposes, different philosophies, different objectives, etc. Broadly speaking, we have on the one hand that what some strategies pursue is to achieve the highest possible profitability, and other strategies aim to < a i=3>minimize risks, while on the other hand there are strategies with the objective of small profits in the short term, when others pursue greater profits in the long term. You can think of each of these strategies as if they were your weapon to fight the bookmaker, and your goal should be to get a whole arsenal of them. Consider that the more weapons you have and the better you know how to use them, the more likely you are to succeed.
Every bettor must treasure for himself all those strategies that adapt to his profile as an investor. For example, some prefer to bet on live events, while others prefer to do so before the start and do other things while the match is going on. Some prefer to take greater risks and obtain higher returns, while others prefer to minimize risks and therefore also returns. Some prefer to place few bets while others prefer to place many bets. Maybe you settle for lower profits in the short term, or are you more ambitious and prefer higher profits in the long term? Only you know your profile as a bettor: you are the only one who knows in what type of scenarios you are going to feel most comfortable.
Having said all this, within the portfolio of every bettor you can find strategies of the following types (among others) working in coordinated combination:
Value bet selection strategies: are generally strategies that seek high returns in the long term, without having to spend a lot of time betting.
Live trading strategies: more oriented towards lower profits in the short term and low risk, but which involve much greater dedication of time and effort.
Bank/stake management strategies: these are other types of strategies totally different from the previous ones, whose objective is to be able to maintain a balanced bank, promoting the highest possible profitability, avoiding at the same time the risk of bankruptcy.
Value Bet Selection Strategies
This type of strategies or systems are based on the selection of bets whose price (or odds) is paid above their real value, so that an advantage is obtained in the long term for the bettor over the bookmaker. These types of strategies are those that must form the hard core of any method to bet if what you want is to be successful in the long term, and they are precisely the type of strategies that can be analyzed using the Betamin Builder tool. As we have said before, with this type of strategies what is sought is high profitability in the long term, without needing to dedicate a lot of time if you have the appropriate tools, as in this case, Betamin Builder, who will do the hard work for you. Otherwise, analyzing, designing and following these strategies could require excessive time.
The odds, or exact value, for a sports bet is impossible to know for sure. Just as the probability of getting heads when flipping a coin is 50% and it is We cannot know exactly, it is not possible to know the exact probabilities for a sports result. Of course, there are a multitude of algorithms to calculate these quotas, more or less complex, but in the exact calculation of this value, so many factors of such varied types come into play that can influence in a multitude of different ways, that the exact calculation seems impossible. to determine. What’s more, if we wanted to prove that our algorithm calculates the odds accurately, it would not be possible to do so. It could only be shown that a set of odds generated by our algorithm are more or less close to the exact value than another set generated by a different algorithm, but it is not possible to show that a separate odds, in itself, is exact, since It is not possible to repeat the same exact sporting event as many times as necessary (thousands of times) until it is proven that the calculated probability is exact.
Precisely this is the good news, that the exact quotas are impossible to know and therefore the market quotas have errors in their calculation , and prices also move for various reasons, which leads to even more errors appearing in the calculation of quotas offered by the market. However, there is also bad news, knowing how to detect these errors is extremely difficult: it is necessary to have a large amount of data to be able to analyze, do back- testing to test theories, etc. etc and obviously it is not within everyone’s reach to have these large databases and know how to handle them with ease. To cover this need we have created the Betamin Builder tool, making large amounts of data on football betting accessible to everyone in a simple way…. a>
Therefore, we can see a value bet selection strategy as an algorithm or method that is capable of detecting bets whose probability of having value is very highthey are strategies to use in the long term.. That is, no one will ever be able to know for sure when a bet has value (except in very extreme cases), but we will be able to know if the set of bets generated by a strategy of this type, overall, have value. What we have just seen, what it implies is that these types of betting strategies require relatively large amounts of bets to know if a strategy works correctly as expected, that is,
Let’s see this with a simple example, the well-known case of heads or tails. We know that the probability of it coming up heads or tails is 50%, which is equivalent to odds 2. This would be the exact and fair odds for this bet. We can then say without fear of being wrong that a 2.1 quota has value. Assuming, for example, an ideal case (not a real one) in which after 100 coin tosses we get 50 heads and 50 tails, if we were betting €1 on each toss, we would lose 50 tosses, and we would win another 50 tosses at odds 2.1, So the final result would be that after investing €100 (that is, €1 in each spin), we obtain -50 + 50 x (1.1) = €5. This would mean that we obtain, in the ideal case, a profitability (also known as Yield or ROI) of 5%, that is, after investing €100 We have obtained €5 profit.
However, in real life, ideal cases like the one proposed do not always occur. In real life, after 100 coin flips, it could happen, and it would not be unusual, that 60 heads and 40 tails come up, or even more cases disparate If we are betting on tails, in that case we would obtain -60 + 40 x (1.1) = -€16, that is, we would have lost €16 after 100 bets, and yet our bets were good, they had enough value to expect a 5% return. What would happen if we continue betting, that is, if we go for the long term? Well, according to the law of large numbers we would obtain results more similar to the ideal case. For example, it would not be unreasonable to think that after 1000 bets you could obtain 520 heads and 480 tails. In this case the result would be -520 + 480 x (1.1) = €8. Still below the expected profitability, but they would begin to have positive results.
The same approach happens the other way around, that is, we have seen the example of what happens if luck goes against us when tossing the coin, but if luck went against us our favor, obviously the results would change a lot. If in 100 spins we won 60 bets at odds 2.1, we would obtain a final profit of €26. Spectacular, if our expected return is 5%, getting 26% is amazing. But it is important to be aware that this does not mean that our bets were better, but rather that luck was on our side this time.
Here then is one of the main reasons why the public loses money betting, and it is none other than, in general, the The bettor does not have the patience and discipline necessary to persevere in the long term and overcome the challenges of bad luck and then be able to take advantage of the favorable winds of good luck when it comes to us.
Let’s see what happens if in the first example, in which due to bad luck we lose 60 bets and win 40, the expected profitability were higher, that is, if instead of betting at odds 2.1 we did so at odds 2.5. The results would be: -60 + 40 x (1.5) = 0, that is, we would not have gained or lost anything.
As an obvious conclusion to all this, the higher the expected profitability of a strategy (Yield or ROI), the lower the probability of suffering losses with it in the short term. However, in the long term, all positive hope strategies will end up giving positive results, according to the law of large numbers.
Below are several examples taken from our blog of value bet selection strategies that are currently working well and returning benefits in the long term, analyzed down to the last detail, that you can follow for yourself or you can also follow them through our tool Betamin Builder. If you want to know all our articles on sports strategies, you have them available at this link.
Live trading strategies
These strategies, although they do not strictly require the use of exchange betting houses, are generally executed in these types of houses because they facilitate their operations. As we have mentioned previously, these strategies are aimed at lower short-term benefits and low risk, but they involve much greater dedication of time and effort. This is because in addition to selecting the matches to enter, once the match has started it is necessary to be attentive to its evolution to know when to execute the trading order and thus close the bet with a result, whether positive. or negative.
They are much more demanding strategies in many aspects. It becomes much more difficult for the bettor to control his irrational impulses and act with a cool head when he is watching a match live on television or following it on the radio, even more so if it is your favorite team.
As a general rule, the way this type of strategy works will consist of making a bet in favor (generally known as Back) on a specific event when it is paid at a relatively high price. (here it is advisable to look for bets with value), to later make a bet against (known as Lay) when its price is lower, thus ensuring a profit regardless of the final result. A typical example could be betting on a tie at the start of a match, and if after a few minutes the match is tied the odds will have dropped enough to bet against the tie and come out with a guaranteed profit, regardless of what happens.
Bank management strategies
The objective of this type of strategy will normally be to achieve the highest possible profitability, while avoiding the risk of bankruptcy. As in all strategies, there is no bank management strategy that is better or worse than another, but one will adapt better than another to your own objectives and way of betting. Let’s see a brief summary of some of them:
Flat Staking Strategy
It consists of always applying the same risk to each bet, which will generally be 1% or 2% of the initial bank. After a cycle to be defined by the bettor, which can be a month or more, or it can be when a certain amount has been reached in the bank (up or down). or it may be when a certain number of bets have been placed, the stake is recalculated based on the bank at that moment and the new stake is bet during another cycle.
The advantages of this way of betting are simplicity (you don’t complicate your life calculating each stake), and it could also be said, its transparency. Using flat staking, the results end successfully only if they are value bets, there is no cheating or card. With other types of stake management it is possible to “camouflage” the results when things go wrong. As with everything, there are defenders and detractors of this system. Simply put, if it fits your way of betting like a glove, use it.
Quota-based variable staking strategy
The philosophy of this stake management strategy is based on the fact that for bets at lower odds, which are successful more frequently, we will invest a higher stake than the one invested for higher odds , which are correct less frequently. This is an attempt to achieve the most stable bankroll possible, given that a bad streak of many lost bets at high odds will not cause a big break in the banking. However, we are never free from a bad streak occurring at low odds, which could cause a big hole in your bankroll.
The ways of calculating the stake in this type of strategies are varied, and as always, depend on each person’s way of betting ; For example, you can use a specific stake for each odds range. We could say, for odds less than 1.5, a stake of 3%, for odds between 1.5 and 2, a stake of 2%, and for odds greater than 2, a stake of 1%. Another way to calculate it would be using an inverse formula of the odds, for example, at odds 2, we could calculate the inverse 1/(2-1) =1, which tells us to invest 1% of the bank; at installment 1.5 we would invest 1/(1.5-1)=2% of the bank, at installment 3 we would invest 1/(3-1)=0.5% of the bank, etc.
Value-based variable staking strategy
This type of strategy is ideal for the vast majority of the public, because with it in theory the highest possible profitability is achieved, with bankruptcy protection. It consists of investing a higher stake proportionally to the value of the bet, that is, a higher stake when the value of the bet is higher, and vice versa, lower stake when the value of the bet is lower.
Seen this way it is great, the problem is that, as we have said before, NO ONE is capable of knowing for sure what the exact odds or probability of a sporting event are in particular , and therefore it is not possible to know how much value is associated with a given quota, to based on this invest a greater or lesser stake in it. Therefore, in the case of sports betting, this variable stake strategy is only strictly valid in theory. However, you can have an approximate idea, within a margin of error, of what the exact probability of a sporting event occurring may be, and in practice this strategy is used in this way, assuming a margin of error in calculating the exact quota.
Stake management strategies that NEVER you should use
There are bank management strategies widely spread on the Internet whose sole objective is to make you think that they are infallible strategies, when in reality they will inevitably lead you to bankruptcy . Generally, these types of strategies are spread by unscrupulous people whose objective is to make you take the bait and lose all your money in the online casino, of which they are owners or will take a commission.
The most widespread strategy of this type, although it has multiple variants, is known as The Martingale. It consists of betting one unit and if you lose the bet, doubling your stake, and so on until you win the bet. Let’s assume a case in which you lose 8 bets in a row, nothing crazy. Our stake progression would be: 1 – 2 – 4 – 8 – 16 – 32 – 64 – 128 -> €256. We would see ourselves in the blink of an eye investing stakes that are too high, and that’s not to mention that you won’t always be able to bet as much stake as you want on all your bets.
We have already said it and we will not tire of repeating it as many times as necessary: never use systems like the Martingale and any of its variants or you will inevitably end up bankrupt.
Conclusions and advice to take into account
We will now briefly and quickly quote a series of final conclusions and advice, directly to the point:
Remember that every serious bettor must have a set of strategies to bet that will help them never deviate from the path and always know what has to do and how. Also remember that the preparation of a portfolio of strategies depends on the way of betting of each individual.
This set of strategies should at least have several of them oriented to the value in the quota, the more the better to diversify the risks the better, and it is also essential to have bank management strategies, all of them interrelated with each other.
Always try to look for the best odds in different bookmakers and avoid bookmakers that limit winning users (or use them until they limit you ).
You must absolutely be methodical and disciplined, and never get carried away by impulses or sudden emotions, which will make you make mistakes.
Focus on chasing the long term when evaluating your results. In another case, a bad streak will make you abandon a system that could be a winner with losses, and bad streaks will come, you can be sure. Of course, establish a stop-loss policy within your strategies to protect yourself against losses.
Last but not least, validate your strategies with a prior analysis before investing your money in them. You can do it without betting, or by betting symbolic amounts. Do not risk significant amounts of money without first validating the strategy that supports your bet.